The latest Pulse Asia survey on President Arroyo being perceived to be the “most corrupt president in Philippine history” obviously shows that Filipinos are not fond of their president. It also calls into mind another Pulse Asia survey conducted in October which shows that 59 percent of Filipinos think “a president should resign if s/he tolerates graft and corruption among government officials or is linked directly or indirectly to graft and corruption.”

Then should it not follow that people would heed Senator Antonio Trillanes’s call for a revolution on November 29? In fact, the same October survey shows that 25 percent of the respondents will “do whatever is necessary to have a president resign or be removed from office.”

Here’s the statistical analysis, provided by Pulse Asia executive director Ana Tabunda. While 25 percent of Filipinos may be willing to do whatever is necessary to remove a corrupt president from office, there is one presumption in the survey question. That they are “convinced that the President should resign.” The question is: were they convinced on November 29?

Newsbreak recalls what analysts and historians have shared to us about failed revolutions in the past. That is, no revolution launched during the holidays nor in the rainy season ever succeeded in the Philippines. Filipinos, the analysts said, never like anything to go in the way of a happy Christmas celebration. They, too, don’t want the hassle of getting wet in the rain.

On November 29, the holiday spirit was in the air, primarily due to early Christmas carols and decorations in malls and giving of the 13th month pay. It was also raining.

Check your history. Take the case of national hero Andres Bonifacio’s “Cry of Balintawak” (or Cry of Pugadlawin, depending on which historian you believe in) in August 1896. August marked the start of the rainy season then, and according to historical accounts, it was, in fact, raining when Bonifacio called for a revolution. Some historical accounts blamed the rain for the failure of the Caviteños, led by Emilio Aguinaldo, to perform their designated role in the planned attack on Manila, thereby causing the revolt to fail.

Take the case of the second people power revolution in EDSA. The impeachment trial against President Estrada intensified in late 2000 but the call for people power was only heeded in January 2001, after the holiday break. Of course, they were also agitated largely by the walkout of prosecutors in the impeachment trial, but God knows what could have happened had the walkout happened in mid-December.

We need not belabor the fact that Ferdinand Marcos was ousted in February 1986—perfect weather, not too hot, not rainy—after Filipinos put up with him for 20 Christmases.

The Inside Track is Newsbreak's intelligencer section. It features the latest buzz on juicy political and business goings on.

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