IT STARTED off as a seemingly unstoppable move. But even before it has officially begun, the House of Representatives-initiated constituent assembly (CA) has already lost momentum.

The ruling coalition in the lower chamber is unanimous only on the matter of changing the present presidential system of government to parliamentary. All other issues beyond that are still open to debate, says House deputy majority leader Art Defensor.

For one, it’s doubtful if the House majority can muster the required number of votes to pass amendments to the Constitution, which is three-fourths of the House membership, or 195 solons. For another, some administration solons are not convinced that the House can move without the Senate in convening a constituent assembly.

By a vote of 161 to 25, the majority was able to amend the rules to speed up the process of convening a CA. But as we went to press, even administration congressmen acknowledged that getting 195 solons on the floor to vote on the proposed amendments would be quite a hurdle. “It’s definitely a concern,” says Tarlac Rep. Gilbert Teodoro of the Nationalist People’s Coalition, a member of the technical working group that fashioned a fast-tracked Charter change process.

Moreover, the two most dominant political parties in the House, Kabalikat ng Malayang Pilipino (KAMPI) and Lakas, are at odds on the issue of power-sharing under a parliamentary system. KAMPI, the original party of President Arroyo, is pushing for a strong president following the French model, according to Negros Oriental Rep. Jacinto Paras, a former opposition member who recently transferred to KAMPI. Lakas, or the camp of Speaker Jose de Venecua Jr., is aiming for a powerful prime minister.

Under the plan of the House majority, the incumbent solons will preside over an interim parliament until a scheduled November 2007 elections for new members. How the interim prime minister will be chosen is also a point of contention. NEWSBREAK online earlier reported that De Venecia wants to insert a provision in the proposed charter-change resolution that says that the President will appoint the Speaker (De Venecia) as interim prime minister.

This proposal is opposed by other parties. KAMPI members reportedly prefer Camarines Sur Rep. Luis Villafuerte, who staunchly defended the President in previous impeachment proceedings, as interim prime minister. And De Venecia, who is said to be facing a stiff reelection battle in his district, may be compelled to settle his differences with KAMPI on some of these issues.

Even harder to settle are concerns that affect each congressman’s prospects of political survival. There are those who favor a postponement of the May 2007 elections, but there are also others who think that a postponement might backfire on them.

Ultimately, solons say, votes depend on the peculiar political circumstances that each congressman is facing in his district. “Each district is different,” Teodoro says. This is precisely why the technical working group has yet to come up with a final draft of the proposed amendments.

The draft simplified proposals seek to postpone the elections to November 2007. This is an apparent concession to incumbents who need time to put their political concerns in order, says Makati Rep. Teodoro Locsin Jr.

But many do not favor this proposal. Those who are running uncontested or have a lead over their rivals are concerned that the extension could allow new rivals to enter the race or catch up and hurt their chances of winning. Congressmen who have started spending on their reelection bids are also not inclined to prolong the process as this could only mean increased expenses on their part.

With regular elections taking place five months from now, congressmen may end up facing elections burdened by political baggage. Locsin points out that nobody would be willing to commit political suicide over this.

Indeed, the House coalition has crumbled under the weight of practical politics.

-By Gemma B. Bagayaua

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